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LYNDA D. RODWELL EDWARD B. BARBIER CALLUM M. ROBERTS TIM R. McCLANAHAN 《Natural Resource Modeling》2002,15(4):453-486
ABSTRACT. The excessive and unsustainable exploitation of our marine resources has led to the promotion of marine reserves as a fisheries management tool. Marine reserves, areas in which fishing is restricted or prohibited, can offer opportunities for the recovery of exploited stock and fishery enhancement. In this paper we examine the contribution of fully protected tropical marine reserves to fishery enhancement by modeling marine reserve‐fishery linkages. The consequences of reserve establishment on the long‐run equilibrium fish biomass and fishery catch levels are evaluated. In contrast to earlier models this study highlights the roles of both adult (and juvenile) fish migration and larval dispersal between the reserve and fishing grounds by employing a spawner‐recruit model. Uniform larval dispersal, uniform larval retention and complete larval retention combined with zero, moderate and high fish migration scenarios are analyzed in turn. The numerical simulations are based on Mombasa Marine National Park, Kenya, a fully protected coral reef marine reserve comprising approximately 30% of former fishing grounds. Simulation results suggest that the establishment of a fully protected marine reserve will always lead to an increase in total fish biomass. If the fishery is moderately to heavily exploited, total fishery catch will be greater with the reserve in all scenarios of fish and larval movement. If the fishery faces low levels of exploitation, catches can be optimized without a reserve but with controlled fishing effort. With high fish migration from the reserve, catches are optimized with the reserve. The optimal area of the marine reserve depends on the exploitation rate in the neighboring fishing grounds. For example, if exploitation is maintained at 40%, the ‘optimal’ reserve size would be 10%. If the rate increases to 50%, then the reserve needs to be 30% of the management area in order to maximize catches. However, even in lower exploitation fisheries (below 40%), a small reserve (up to 20%) provides significantly higher gains in fish biomass than losses in catch. Marine reserves are a valuable fisheries management tool. To achieve maximum fishery benefits they should be complemented by fishing effort controls. 相似文献
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We consider Markov processes built from pasting together pieces of strong Markov processes which are killed at a position
dependent rate and connected via a transition kernel. We give necessary and sufficient conditions for local absolute continuity
of probability laws for such processes on a suitable path space and derive an explicit formula for the corresponding likelihood
ratio process. The main tool is the consideration of the process between successive jumps – what we call ‘elementary experiments’
– and criteria for absolute continuity of laws of the process there. We apply our results to systems of branching diffusions
with interactions and immigrations.
This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
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平行机半在线排序问题研究(Ⅰ) 总被引:15,自引:1,他引:14
对半在线平行机排序问题的研究进展作了详细综述和进一步探讨。文章给出半在线排序问题的背景、定义、分类和求解。介绍它们定义和在不同机器环境和目标函数下半在线排序问题分类,以及第一类半在线模型的近似算法的设计及其竞争比分析。 相似文献
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Noboru Nakatani 《Optical Review》2003,10(4):206-210
This paper describes a compulsorily phase locked differential interferometer using an orthogonally polarized light source of a modulated LD with high extinction ratio to reduce non-linearity of the interferometer caused by polarization cross-talk. The current modulated LD is used as a light source to make the interferometer compact and for the scanning phase of the interferometer. The interferometer is operated compulsorily at the maximum inclination point of the fringe intensity curve by fringe scanning and an electric system. A Wollaston prism of high extinction ratio (50 dB) is used to combine the polarizing beams and to make the polarization cross-talk very small. In one light source the polarized output beams are on the same propagation axis; in the other they have a small crossing angle (2.5 mrad ∼ 10 mrad) to completely exclude non-linearity of the interferometer causded by polarization cross-talk. Using jets of a gas mixture of nitrogen and ethylene, this interferometer was demonstrated to be useful in detecting the photothermal effect of a photothermal velocimeter under phase fluctuation in a turbulent flow. 相似文献
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The usual tool for modelling bond ratings migration is a discrete, time‐homogeneous Markov chain. Such model assumes that all bonds are homogeneous with respect to their movement behaviour among rating categories and that the movement behaviour does not change over time. However, among recognized sources of heterogeneity in ratings migration is age of a bond (time elapsed since issuance). It has been observed that young bonds have a lower propensity to change ratings, and thus to default, than more seasoned bonds. The aim of this paper is to introduce a continuous, time‐non‐homogeneous model for bond ratings migration, which also incorporates a simple form of population heterogeneity. The specific form of heterogeneity postulated by the proposed model appears to be suitable for modelling the effect of age of a bond on its propensity to change ratings. This model, called a mover–stayer model, is an extension of a Markov chain. This paper derives the maximum likelihood estimators for the parameters of a continuous time mover–stayer model based on a sample of independent continuously monitored histories of the process, and develops the likelihood ratio statistic for discriminating between the Markov chain and the mover–stayer model. The methods are illustrated using a sample of rating histories of young corporate issuers. For these issuers the default probabilities predicted by the Markov chain and mover–stayer models are different. In particular for 1–4 years old bonds the mover–stayer model estimates substantially lower default probabilities from rating C than a Markov chain. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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